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October 3, 2023
Market Mechanics

What Bond Yields Tell Us About the Economy

An analysis of the bond market as a forward-looking indicator for economic health, focusing on the yield curve.

A 3D visualization of an inverted financial yield curve.

The bond market is often called the "smart money." The yield curve—a graph of bond yields across different maturities—provides powerful clues. An inverted yield curve, where short-term bonds yield more than long-term ones, has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions.