Bonds, Yields & "Smart Money" Signals

Discover how the bond market, often called the "smart money," provides clues about future economic health.

A conceptual image of financial bonds or certificates.

The bond market is often seen as a leading indicator for the broader economy. Bond yields (the return on a bond) reflect expectations for future interest rates and inflation. A phenomenon known as an 'inverted yield curve,' where short-term bonds yield more than long-term ones, has historically been one of the most reliable predictors of an upcoming recession.